Packaged goods is one of the most sophisticated industries for marketing and sales practices. At least we like to think it is. But sometimes, we aren't so smart. Have you ever heard of the McNamara Fallacy? The term was coined by well known market researcher/pollster Daniel Yankelovich.
The McNamara Fallacy
The first step is to measure whatever can be easily measured. This is OK as far as it goes.
The second step is to disregard that which can’t be easily measured or to give it an arbitrary quantitative value. This is artificial and misleading.
The third step is to presume that what can’t be measured easily really isn’t important. This is blindness.
The fourth step is to say that what can’t be easily measured really doesn’t exist. This is suicide
from Adam Smith’s book Paper Money
Robert McNamara, a former President of the Ford Motor Co., was US Secretary of Defense from 1961-1968 (Kennedy and Johnston administrations), and headed up the most powerful, most sophisticated armed forces this planet had ever seen. (He also wrote a very enlightening and mea culpa book In Retrospect: The Tragedy and Lessons of Vietnam which, if you are a history buff, I very highly recommend).
But back to the fallacy. It's all about The War in Vietnam, and the use of body counts as a proxy to measure progress in a war without battle lines and a conventional enemy. From today's vantage point, it seems so clear now. In the 1960s, it was not so cut and dried.
What has the McNamara Fallacy got to do with Packaged Goods in the 21st century? More next time.
... to be continued
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